Even with reductions in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, every child in the world is at risk of facing frequent heatwaves by 2050, and three out of four are at risk of facing long-duration heatwaves. Therefore, adaptation measures to climate change and financial support for developing countries are needed to protect children from the inevitable effects of warming. These are the predictions and recommendations contained in a UNICEF report.

Heatwaves are periods of extremely hot weather that last for several days. Climate change is causing heatwaves to occur more frequently and become more intense. They are most dangerous for people with chronic cardiovascular diseases, children and the elderly. It is known that high temperatures increase the risk of respiratory diseases in children and disrupt their sleep.

The UNICEF report focuses on the impact of heatwaves on children around the world today (based on 2020 data) and the projected impact by the middle of the 21st century. The organization's experts assumed that with the introduction of restrictions on anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the average global temperature by 2050 will increase by 1.7 degrees Celsius relative to the pre-industrial level; without restrictions - by 2.4 degrees Celsius. They identified four indicators of heat exposure for children: exposure to frequent heatwaves (more than 4.5 such events per year), long-duration heatwaves (longer than 4.7 days), severe heatwaves and exposure to extremely high temperatures (above 35 degrees Celsius for more than 83 days per year).

According to the report, in Russia, 11 percent of children (3.3 million) are currently at risk from severe heatwaves, 25 percent of children (7.7 million) from frequent heatwaves and 78 percent of children (23.7 million) from prolonged heatwaves. If greenhouse gas emissions are not limited, then by 2050 all children in Russia will suffer from frequent heatwaves (it is estimated that there will be 26.4 million of them by that time), and almost all (98 percent) from prolonged heatwaves. 82 percent of Russian children will face severe heatwaves.

Currently, every fourth child in the world is exposed to frequent and long-duration heatwaves, every third child is exposed to extremely high temperatures and 28 million children are exposed to severe heatwaves. By 2050, even with the limitation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, every child in the world will be exposed to frequent heatwaves; three out of four children will be exposed to prolonged heatwaves; 40 percent of children will be exposed to extremely high temperatures and 100 million children will be exposed to severe heatwaves.

Thus, by the middle of the century, the health of all children in the world will be threatened by heat in one way or another. The authors of the report noted that the obtained forecasts indicate the need not only to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but also to begin to take measures to mitigate the inevitable impact of heat on children's health, in particular, to provide education on climate change and climate risks. They also propose that developed countries transfer funds to developing countries and children living there to adapt to warming.

Sources:

https://www.unicef.org/reports/coldest-year-rest-of-their-lives-children-heatwaves

https://scindeks.ceon.rs/Article.aspx?artid=0354-87242101035K

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(20)30274-6/fulltext

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-37111-2#ref-CR10

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16970-7