Introduction

In an effort to abate some of the many consequences of anthropogenic climate change, the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015 by 195 countries in hopes that the deal would preserve our planet for future generations. As the first-ever legally binding global climate deal, its nearly universal adoption by the world's nations serves as a landmark in the fight against global warming. Although the general aim of the deal is to keep the increase in global average temperature well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, the precise mechanisms by which each state contributes to this objective vary and there are no consequences put in place currently to force any nation to reach goals within specific timeframes.

Moreover, there are no exact requirements that any member needs to follow to remain in the agreement. Given this flexibility and highly individualized take on tackling a global issue, it seems like quite an appealing method to try to lessen the effects of climate change while still taking into account the economic interests of political entities. Last week, however, the Trump Administration announced that the U.S. would be withdrawing from the agreement as soon as possible, despite continued pleas from other members of the Group of Seven (G7). Now that the U.S. might officially withdraw in 2020, this decision could have much impact on climate action and the rest of the world, but what exactly is the impact?

Goals of the Agreement

The aim of the Paris Agreement is primarily to enhance the implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) so that international efforts towards long-term CO2 emission reduction are maximized. The accord builds on the initial purpose of the UNFCCC, to "stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system," through three aims:

1. Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change

2. Increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change and foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas emissions development, in a manner that does not threaten food production

3. Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development.

The accord established that members will attain these goals potentially by emission mitigation, transparency and global stocktake, and adaptation. The emission mitigation detailed in the agreement involves a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperatures to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and the eventually limiting the increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels to substantially decrease risks associated with climate change. Transparency will be achieved by countries meeting every five years to set more ambitious targets, and then reporting how well they are implementing their goals. Then, progress will be tracked over time through an accountability and transparency system meant to make sure that members are doing their fair share of climate mitigation. Adaptation will be met by strengthening societal capability to deal with the effects of climate change, and providing international support for adaptation to developing nations.

Impact of US Withdrawal

It is possible that there will be negative ramifications both environmentally and economically felt in the U.S. and abroad if this decision takes effect in 2020. One main effect will likely be an increase in the American coal industry and non-renewable energy. Greater efforts must also be taken abroad to ensure the health of our planet in the years to come to combat potential increases in carbon emissions from the U.S. coal industry. As of now, though, the broad result of this development is largely uncertain and remains to be determined in 2020. However, while the President decided to leave this international pact, there was still renewed domestic support for the agreement from many states, cities, and companies.

Since the withdrawal, over a dozen U.S. states and territories (including California and New York) have joined the newly established United States Climate Alliance that affirms local compliance with the Paris Agreement. While the alliance was only formed on June 1st, its member states comprised nearly 1/3 the U.S. population and 36.3% of U.S. GDP in 2016. Additionally, states in this alliance account for 18.1% of carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S. in 2014. Therefore, support from these states is still crucial to the implementation of the Paris Agreement. In short, the U.S. policy towards the Paris Agreement is definitely not settled, nor is one administration's choice to leave the accord representative of how the country views the agreement overall.

References

European Commission

The Telegraph

Quartz

Los Angeles Times

Forbes