Intensity of Calamities of anthropological climate change varies with region, economic capacity and ability to cope with it and it’s indifferent to ‘contributor’ of Climate Change. In fact we can see it’s often the non-contributor who have to face the music of Climate Change and Nepal it’s no exception. According to World Resource Institute 2010, Nepal’s emission of Green House Gases like carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, perfluorocarbon, hydrofluorocarbon, and sulfur hexafluoride as low as 37.37 MtCO2e (which it’s less than 0.1% of Global Scale). However, Nepal it’s ranked 13th in the world in terms of climate change vulnerability (2012 Climate Change Risk Atlas). This speaks volumes of widespread disparity of climate change effect. What’s more, it’s agriculture system and Glacier lakes, which also are biggest contributor of GDP and major source of fresh water respectively, going to face the negative efficacy of anthropological climate Change.

According to ICIMOD report, The Hindu Kush-Himalayan region contains the world’s largest volume of glacier ice and perennial snow outside the Polar Regions. Its melt water contributes to the major rivers that supply freshwater to almost a quarter of humanity residing in the downstream areas. The Himalayan range extends for approximately 2,400 km within the 3,500 km length of the Hindu Kush-Himalayan ranges, and has about 33,000 sq.km of the estimated 110,000 sq.km of glaciated area. The Nepal Himalayas occupy 800 km of the central section of the Himalayan range.

Due to global warming which has caused increased in average temperature has resulted in melting of glacial in Himalaya region.Glacial melting it’s occurring at the rate as high as 50 feet per year.Glacial Lake outburst Floods (GLOF) occurs when glacial lakes fill past their breaking points and burst causing extensive damage to roads, bridges, trails and villages.

Nepal has experienced 24 GLOF events of which 14 were occurred in Nepal itself while 10 were the result of flood surge overspills across the Tibet. 40 of Nepal’s 2300 glacial lakes are identified as potentially dangerous for GLOF out of which 20 are likely to burst.

Some of the GLOF are-Madi river( Kabache lake,15 August,2004 and 8 August 2004),  Dud Koshi( Tam Pokhari river,1998), Tama Koshi (Chumbung lake,1991) and so forth.In dudh Koshi GLOF 2million USD damaged occurred while in Madi GLOF damages are yet unknown.

With rise of temperature, big glaciers are melting rapidly and resulting in the increasing number of glacial lakes. Nowadays, air temperature of Himalayas are 1 degree Celsius higher than 1970s and rising by 0.06 degree Celsius per year (Shrestha et al 1999). This means glacier will retreat and forms Glacier Lake behind moraine and ice dams. Tsho Rolpa, most studied, most dangerous and largest moraine dammed proglacial lake it’s fed by Trad-Karding glacier, which itself it’s retreating itself at the rate over 20 meter (sometime reaching up to 100 m) a year. Because of this phenomena, lakes have increased six time from merely 0.23 square Kilometer in 1950s to 1.5 square kilometer now. This possess billion dollar threat to livestock, biodiversity, bridges, constructions and infrastructure and prominently human life with potential to become unprecedented apocalypse as a burst would release 30 million cubic meter water.

If GLOF and glacial melting continues to occur then not only it will cause immediate damages like destruction of infrastructure, taking away human life and assets, agricultural land damage and sweeping away livestock but also severe long term effects which can barely be estimated. If glacial continues to melt then there will be decline in water level of glacier fed rivers thus decreasing supply to water for those people (more than one billion of people) that depends on those rivers. This will create environmental and economic chaotic situation and people have to face the music. Also, melting of glacial lakes will leave mountains snowless thus effecting the biodiversity and eco system of Mountain region.

Mountain occupies special position economically, socially and environmentally in Nepal. It’s one of the reasons many tourists come here. Mountain as well consists of unique eco-system and it’s home to rare and endangered species like Snow Leopard( Panthera unica), Red Panda(Ailurus fulgen), Yarchhaghumba (Cordyceps sinensis), Panchaaule (Dactylorhiza hatagirea) and so on. These are major source of earning for the local people reisiding there and also important Eco Tourisim aspect.

Nepalese people depend upon mountain as source of water, energy production (hydroelectricity it’s major source of energy in Nepal) as most of the rivers are originated from mountains. Dig Tsho GLOF from border of Tibet crept Arun 3 Hydroproject. Thus single major outburst will blackout the economy of Nepal. If glacial melting and GLOF continue to occur, it?s going to have butterfly effect on Nepal.

For many living a sophisticated life, a rise of 1.5 degree Celsius could simply mean lowering the AC temperature or upgrading the system. but somewhere out in a beautiful and pristine region like Himalaya and my country  Nepal, it’s mean sweeping away of whole Himalayan civilization, economic, ecological and human catastrophe , the scenarios which many cannot even imagine. Prevention of GLOF means protecting life of millions people who directly depend on Himalaya for the fresh water to drink and irrigation. Protection of GLOF means conservation of these hydroelectricity project (which ultimately are green energy source) as all the hydroelectricity projects are based on Himalaya fed rivers. Keeping temperature rise below 1.5 degree Celsius connotes with conservation of Biodiversity and continuation of balanced ecological system, preservation of Himalaya. It means thriving of eco-tourism and sustaining of economic activities of people living in Himalaya.

So this time of our it’s not to debate on climate change but to take decision on the mitigating strategy.  My country needs global support and actual commitment. Because 1.5 it’s well too hot to handle.

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