Drought Hazard Index from Decades to Decades !by | 20-08-2016 13:39 |
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 Hola! Today's report would be about Drought Hazard Index (DHI) in Indonesia. This was one of our project task for determining How DHI from decades to decades, and developed by my friends to be his Final Assignment to get the Bachelor of Science. I would try to explain it as simple as possible, based on "Quality" observation methods. First, you should note, the highest Index would be 24 (which is refers to Severe Drought), and 1 (which is refers to normal).    Generally, there's huge variability of DHI in Indonesia. Basically it depends on how wet the place, how often and how big the intensity of rainfall. Mostly, Java, Bali, and Nusa-tenggara Islands is quite drought, which has index more than 16. So do several place in Sulawesi, East-Kalimantan, Maluku islands, and south-Papua. So, this report would see the increasing of DHI in several places due to Climate Change! I. Sumatera (See the circle Red-Line) First, in 1951 - 1980, Sumatera was not really drought, except in Aceh (North-Sumatera). We can see there are lots of place which had DHI below 12. Unfortunately, when we measure DHI in 1965 - 1995, there are lots of place in South-Sumatera has increased its DHI to be 16 precisely. And it keeps getting worst in 1980-2010 due to the high DHI was wider and more intense. What's the effect? Yups, it can drive us to have more Forest Fire in Sumatera! Because the lack of rainfall for 3 month and the forest fire would be wider and wider! II. Kalimantan and Sulawesi (see the blue-line circle) Actually, based on DHI, Kalimantan was not really having severe drought then except its east-to-south Kalimantan though. But, thanks to Global Warming, the intensity and frequency of severe drought had increased, and it keeps getting wider also. Basically, we need to warn multi-sector ministry to be more about the drought. So that they could have a good plan and policy for the farmers during the dry season. III. Maluku and Papua (see the green-line circle) Ah, same with Sulawesi and Kalimantan, there are increasing of DHI also. But in north Maluku, the frequency of drought event is getting smaller, and shifting to the south Maluku, which is more intense and wider. In papua, even though there were increasing of DHI, we can say it's still in near-normal condition which is not really hazardous. In fact, north and south of Papua still to be due to the high intensity of 3 month Drought which can affect the agronomy of these places. So, what do you think? Are you sure there's no Global Warming at all? You can see how intense the Drought and hazard it can be! Hopefully we can publish it a.s.a.p and advocate the ministry to plan the best policies! Thank you! PS. If you want to learn more about DHI, please read this paper: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-007-9191-5 |
