Present Climate Change Scenario of Nepal:

Climate change refers to the variation of Climatic events that persist for a longer period of time, typically decades or more. Developing countries are most affected by climate change impacts in comparison to developed countries. Nepal only contributes 0.027 % of greenhouse gas emission in the globe (INDC, 2016) but globally, Nepal is ranked fourth in terms of vulnerability to climate change (UNDP Nepal).

Temperature:  The  mean annual  temperature  across  Nepal is supposed to be increased  by  0.5  to  2.0°C  by  the  2030s  which  can  reach  to  1.7  to  4.1°C,  by  the  2060s  and 3.0 to 6.3°C by the 2090s (NCVST,2009).

Rainfall:  Monsoon season contributes on an average 79.8 percent of the total annual precipitation in Nepal whereas winter season only contributes 3.5 percent (DHM, 2015). Monsoon precipitation is supposed to be increased by 15-20 % and winter precipitation is to be decreased. Therefore, risk from natural disasters like excess rain, low rain, floods, landslides, Glacial Lake Outburst Floods etc. are increasing in Nepal.

Impacts of Climate Change in Nepal:

Various sectors like forest and biodiversity, agriculture and food security, human health, hydroelectricity and energy are mainly affected by the impacts of climate change in Nepal.

Forest and Biodiversity:  Forest fire are increased creating the trouble in forest management. Forest encroachment, wildlife shifting and trade e.tc are taking peak in Nepal. Invasive species like Mikania, Water hyacinth, Parthenium etc. are increased due to the adverse effects of climate change.

Agriculture and Food security: Rainfall at unsuitable times have changed the pattern of crop farming. Excessive drought, temperature and dew formation have increased the pests of agriculture (for e.g. recently locusts insect are entered in Nepal) and damage of crops.

Human Health: Health issues like diarrhoea, malaria and malnutrition are increased due to the adverse impacts of climate change. The over use of insecticides and pesticides for crop protection has raised serious health effects.

Climate Induced Disasters:  More than 80 percent of the total population of Nepal is currently at the risk from natural disasters such as floods, landslides, fires, earthquake and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). Nepal is among the 20 most disaster-prone countries in the world (Ministry of Home affairs, 2018).

Hydroelectricity and Energy: Climate induced disasters are expected to create negative impacts on hydroelectricity generation. Fire woods are also decreased because of excessive forest fire.

Social Impacts:   Especially women, children, poor and marginalized communities have been facing bigger challenges because of low adaptive capacity to climate change. Poor communities and women bear the load of impacts like drying of water sources, difficulty in crop plantation in time, and shortage of fodders & fire woods.

References:

·        Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), 2015.  Study of climate and climatic variation over Nepal.

·        INDC, 2016. INTENDED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS (INDC). Government of Nepal Ministry of Population and Environment.

·        Ministry of Home Affairs, 2018. Nepal Disaster Report, 2017: The Road to Sendai, Kathmandu: Government of Nepal.

·        NCVST, 2009. Vulnerability through the Eyes of Vulnerable: Climate Change Induced Uncertainties and Nepal’s Development Predicaments. Institute for Social and Environmental Transition-Nepal (ISET-N), Kathmandu.

·        UNDP Nepal. Energy, environment, climate and disaster-risk management. Retrieved from https://www.np.undp.org/content/nepal/en/home/energy-environment-climate-and-disaster-risk-management/in-depth.html

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