20^th Eco-gen Ambassador Program- 1^st Report, August 2018

Introduction

 

As of today, Europe is reeling under an unusually massive heat wave and drought, while South East Asia has been crippled by unprecedented rain and flooding.

 

It is not hard to miss the similarity between these two contrasting weather patterns that have prevailed news headlines over the last few weeks. As I assess and compare them,  these patterns indicate a steady ongoing change in the climate in various parts of the world- a change towards extreme and unusual weather, a change that is scary as mankind has no control over it.

 

How many more wake up calls do we need from nature? How much more loss (of life, crops, property and more) will it take for us to recognize climate change as real, take suitable measures to minimise the factors that contribute to it and prepare for the consequences of the damage that has already been done?

 

Major Heat waves in Europe in the past

 

Thousands of people had died across Europe in heat waves in 2003 and 2010 . The 'Lucifer' heat wave of 2017 was strong enough to have earned itself a name synonymous with 'the Devil', as it fanned forest fires and nearly halved agricultural output in some countries. Some reports last year claimed that the scorching temperatures across Europe's Mediterranean nations were made at least 10 times more likely by climate change.

 

Current Heat Wave and Drought in Europe (Summer of 2018)

 

Spring and summer of 2018 has seen unusually hot weather in Europe with record-breaking temperatures across the continent; droughts and crop failures in northern and central Europe; and wildfires in many countries.

 

Researchers feel that 'Hot high-pressure air' lingering in the same place due to a 'weaker than usual' jet stream has contributed partly to this heat wave in the northern hemisphere. It is also being claimed that global warming could have more than doubled the overall likelihood of the heat wave.

 

Researchers believe that a strong polar amplification (faster rate of rise of average surface temperature in the Polar Regions as compared to the mid-latitudes) reduces the strength and changes the pattern of the jet stream. Global warming could thus be contributing to slowing and weakening of the jet stream, a phenomenon that in turn partly caused this heat wave.

 

Negative Effects of current Heat Wave in Europe

 

Whole of Europe has experienced extreme heat that has caused:

- Wild forest fires in Greece, Spain, Portugal, UK, Latvia, Finland, Denmark, Norway and Sweden

- Outbreaks of deadly cyanobacteria in Poland

- Droughts, water shortage, crop failures, loss of biodiversity, and incidents of human ill health and deaths in many parts of Europe

- Closure of reactors or reduced electricity output at nuclear power plants in Germany and France, as nearby rivers (that absorb waste heat from their cooling systems) had reached critical temperatures.

Please follow the weblink below for more detailed reports about the specific impact of the heat wave in Europe

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_European_heat_wave

Effects of current Heat Wave in Austria (where I currently reside)

 

Austria lies in the center of Europe. Western and northern parts of Austria have been hit hard by drought this year. Some areas in these regions have experienced up to 85% less rainfall than the average of last 10 years. Droughts have affected crops badly and the damage is expected to be as high as 210 million Euro. Some crops like grapes and apricots had to be harvested sooner than usual as a warm spring and hot summer accelerated the ripening process.

 

The heat has also affected the comfort of residents. Most of the older commercial and residential properties in Austria (in fact whole of Europe in general) traditionally do not have air conditioning/cooling for the summer as it was never really needed. Ventilation through open windows had always sufficed to provide comfortable interiors. The buildings here do not even have ceiling fans.

 

Before I shifted to Austria last year, I have been visiting Europe for the last 4-5 years and in the last 2 years, the temperatures have been warmer than before. Feeling the need for additional cooling and air circulation, this year we have had to buy table fans at home as also at my parents' place of work, as air conditioning is very costly and often not practical.

Young children and old people are most susceptible to having heat related ailments and health issues.

 

Heavy rains and Floods in South East Asia, especially India

 

Recent floods have affected 41 million people in India, Nepal, and Bangladesh.

 

The monsoon has wreaked havoc in India. In addition to other problems arising from floods and water logging, heavy rains and floods have claimed many lives during the last 2 months. As reported in the national Daily, 'The Times of India' on 13^th August, "As many as 774 people have died in incidents related to floods and rains in seven states during the monsoon season."

 

Deaths have been reported from 7 of the country's 29 states- Maharashtra, Kerala, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Nagaland, and Assam. Other states of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand, Delhi and Tamilnadu are also affected.

 

As I write this report, Kerala, a state in south of India, is still grappling with the worst floods to hit the state in nearly a century; and the death toll there is likely to increase.. Thousands of houses have been damaged by floods, heavy rain and landslides. About 50,000 people have been displaced and lives of over 100,000 have been affected. Crops and plantations have been damaged in the region, well known for its coffee and spices. Airports have had to suspend flights. Electricity supply could also be affected due to flooding of substations. Tourism activities have been disrupted in the state that is a popular tourist destination.

 

As quoted in Business Standard dated 17^th July 2018, "India accounts for one-fifth of global deaths due to floods, according to government data that lend perspective to a new World Bank study that says climate change will lower the standards of living of nearly half of India's population by 2050."

 

"Temperatures have been rising across the [South Asia] region, and are projected to continue increasing for the next several decades under all plausible climate scenarios," the World Bank study, published on June 28, 2018, said.

 

These changes will result in more frequent flooding, greater water demand and increased heat-related medical issues. Please follow the link below for the original report.

https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/climate-change-warning-one-fifth-of-global-deaths-due-to-flooding-in-india-118071700128_1.html

 

Extreme weather conditions all over the world in 2018

 

Record or near-record heat waves have been experienced across the entire northern hemisphere this summer, with deadly wildfires in many regions, such as the western USA and Siberia, besides Europe that I have discussed above in more detail.

Please read through the following two web reports that document the huge impact of the heat wave across the world and some of the other extreme weather conditions in all parts of the globe.

https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/climate-change/global-heatwave-scores-dead-across-europe-and-asia-thousands-more-injured/news-story/d419c649d310a0b171633d61fd9ca2f4

https://news.sky.com/story/extreme-weather-2018-snow-in-the-sahara-wildfires-and-typhoons-11471584

 

Is climate change the main culprit?

 

Random extremes do occur naturally and perhaps, no event can be said to be caused by climate change alone. However, by comparing extremes with historical measurements and computer models of a climate unaltered by carbon emissions, researchers can conclude how global warming and climate change are contributing to dangerous weather.

 

Furthermore, in recent times, increasing incidences and heightened intensity of extreme weather conditions and other natural calamities, points towards climate change as the main culprit. Human-caused climate change thus stands out as a major threat to human existence and livelihood, impacting not only human and animal lives, but also causing severe economic losses.

 

Conclusion

 

It is already predicted that without action to tackle global warming, such extreme weather will become normal by 2050.  I do believe that it is important to first acknowledge climate change as real, so that the fast-growing field of scientific study of climate change and immediate global action in this regard can help avert serious consequences.

 

Sources and References

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/27/climate-change-made-lucifer-heatwave-far-more-likely-scientists-find

https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-unprecedented-summer-heat-europe-1-5c-warming

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_European_heat_wave

https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-how-global-warming-has-increased-us-wildfires

https://news.sky.com/story/heavy-rain-and-floods-in-india-kill-over-500-people-as-fishes-swim-in-hospital-11453979

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/65382786.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

http://greenubuntu.com/floods-in-india-and-farmer-suicides-due-to-climate-change-global-warming/