The relationship between climate change and agriculture is not a new phenomenon. India is considered to highly vulnerable to climate change, not only because of high physical exposure to climate related disasters, but also because of the dependency of its economy and majority of population on climate sensitive sectors(eg. Agriculture, forest, animal husbandry etc.). Climate change is a likely threat to agriculture, food security and livelihood of farmers. Climate change is believed to affect agriculture by indicating changes on farmer behavior, quantity, quality, cost of production, change in production, consumption, prices, and the trade patterns.

Indian agriculture remains vulnerable to the vagaries of weather, and the looming threat of climate change may expose this vulnerability further. Economists’ estimates that climate change has led to a loss of 1.5 percent of India’s GDP. Agriculture remains hugely important for India’s economy as it accounts for nearly 15 percent of India’s GDP and employs 47 percent of the nation’s labor force. Many studies shows that climate change could reduce farm incomes by 15-18 percent and by 20-25 percent in unirrigated areas. The economic survey noted that impact is more adverse(almost twice) in unirrigated lands compared with irrigated areas and given the fact that around 52%(73.2 million hectares area of a total 141.4 million hectares net sown area) of India’s total land under agriculture is  still unirrigated and rain fed, the sector could be in trouble.

In the states of Jharkhand, Odisha and Chhattisgarh alone, rice production losses during severe droughts (about one year in five) average about 40 percent of total production, with an estimated value of $800 million. According to a report published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, each degree Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4% and soybean by 3.1%. There would be higher losses at higher temperatures. Productivity of most crops decreases only marginally by 2020 but by 10 to 40 percent by 2100 due to increase in temperature, rainfall variability and decreases in irrigation water.

A study conducted by Dehradun based Wildlife Institute of India shows that farming of 30 traditional crops has been abandoned in Pithoragarh district(my hometown) in last one decade due to climate change and migration. In Rajasthan, a 2 degree rise in temperature was estimated to reduce production of millet by 10 to 15 percent and if maximum and minimum temperatures rise by 3 and 3.5 degrees respectively, then Soya bean yields will be affected by 5 percent compared to 1998.

Signals of climate change are already visible. Global climate change is going to affect major crops like rice, wheat, maize in India. In view of drastic environmental changes taking place it is necessary for farmers as well as for the Indian government to adapt to changing situation as soon as possible. In particular, the government should incentivize farmers to use climate-tolerant crop varieties and adopt efficient irrigation technologies, as well as invest resources in conservation agriculture and agroforestry.