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[March Free Report 2023] Using climate change data to predict disease outbreaks - Tara Malhotra |
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by Tara Malhotra | 27-03-2023 14:52
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Tara Malhotra
March Free Report 2023 Using climate change data to predict disease outbreaks As global warming continues, the hotter environment is becoming an ideal habitat for disease-carrying mosquitoes. In addition, climate change brought extreme weather—such as floods and storms—that can contaminate water supplies and restrict access to clean sanitation. Both of these issues lead to a greater spread of deadly illnesses. But, according to the University of Oxford, these disease outbreaks can be predicted and prevented by analyzing climate change data. In February, the University of Oxford launched a new project called the Dengue Advanced Readiness Tool (DART). This project was funded by the Wellcome Trust, a health research foundation, and its objective is to use global warming statistics to generate disease forecasting and a data visualization resource for health officials along with the general public. Felipe Colón, the Technology Lead at Wellcome Trust, touched on the correlation between climate change data and predicting epidemics. “The connection between climate change and the spread of infectious disease is often overlooked, or not made at all. This has resulted in a critical shortage of tools that model the relationship between climate change and disease outbreaks, and those that do exist are often complex and not accessible for local health officials and policy-makers,” Colón said. DART is specifically focused on the dengue virus because it is the most widespread human vector-borne disease in the world. Dengue fever is transmitted by mosquito bites and can be lethal if it is not treated. According to the World Health Organization, dengue fever is among the top ten world health threats and is spreading the fastest. Throughout the past 50 years, the number of dengue cases has increased by 30 times. Each year, around 390 million people are infected by dengue in the world, leading to 36,000 deaths. To combat dengue by using climate change information, the scientists at the University of Oxford will be honing in on two case studies: Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam, was chosen as the first example for DART due to its continuous two-decade dengue epidemic. Ho Chi Minh City was also selected by DART because it endures seasonal dengue virus outbreaks every year. Both Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City were intentionally chosen because of their location in Vietnam. Dengue is the primary reason for hospital and intensive care unit patients in Vietnam. This is due to the fact that cases have been rising for the past 30 years in Vietnam and disease-transmitting mosquitoes have been increasing as well from the hotter temperatures that are suitable for the insects. This continues the cycle of dengue in Vietnam and other parts of the world. Scientists from the University of Oxford partnered with Vietnam’s National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology and the University of Science and Technology of Hanoi for DART. To accomplish their mission, they are creating a team of experts on climate, infectious diseases, computer science, and dengue. By looking at prior outbreaks such as in Vietnam, the scientists will compare epidemiological and weather forecasting data in order to average and predict the size, timing, and duration of dengue waves. They will then distribute this information along with a preventative plan to governments, health officers, clinicians, and the public to provide readiness steps to decrease the spread of dengue. Sarah Sparrow, the Principal Investigator for DART, highlighted the project’s dengue visualizations for officials and the public. “The project will produce visualizations for the general public… to warn people of periods of likely high incidence of dengue fever and provide some practical advice on what to do to reduce the risk of infection, as well as providing visualizations for stakeholders like the Center for Disease Controls and hospitals in affected areas. In the future we hope to expand the tool to other dengue-afflicted areas of the world,” Sparrow said. Eventually, the DART scientists hope to design a mobile and desktop application that can report real-time dengue forecasts and predictions for designated locations. The application will consist of DART’s weather and disease data in various cities to give the public an accessible health and safety resource against dengue. DART aims to fill important knowledge gaps about disease outbreaks (especially dengue) to help medical staff and policy-makers take appropriate action. DART wants to raise awareness among populations about dengue and the importance of preventing vector-borne illnesses. The visualizations will also advise hospitals on where to distribute certain resources to optimize their impact and accessibility. This information will allow governments and healthcare professionals to respond quickly with preplanned health measures. The University of Oxford found that if DART is successful, these factors will enable the project to save more lives and contain further dengue outbreaks.  Dengue virus being studied. Photo courtesy of Oxford University Clinical Research Unit. |
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Former E-gen Ambassador
Tara Malhotra
Previous : March Free Report
2 Comments
Hello Tara! This is your mentor Yewon.
Personally, your topic was very interesting as I'm studying statistics at my university! haha
This is the first time I hear of the Dengue Advanced Readiness Tool (DART). The experiment of this study seems quite attractive, and I hope scientists could get further meaningful results!!
Thank you for your informative report! I'm looking forward to reading your next report, too!!
Great job!
Posted 31-03-2023 03:40
Hello again Tara! It's your mentor James.
It is certainly interesting to hear that disease outbreaks can be pre-identified via climate change observations. Dengue virus is certainly a deadly disease that took countless lives since human history, but it is unfortunate to hear that the annual spread of the virus increased by a factor of 30.
I sincerely hope this research project comes with a positive result so that vulnerable communities can prepare for future outbreaks of the virus! With more control over the virus, the more control over the economy as well during any outbreaks.
Thank you for this helpful article! Let's keep up the good work.
Posted 27-03-2023 15:42