Germany's moratorium on nuclear-power generation will add around 25 million metric tons a year to the country's carbon-dioxide emissions, which will have to be offset elsewhere by replacing coal-fired power with cleaner gas-burning plants, the International Energy Agency said Friday.

The shutdown of Germany's nuclear plants will take out about 50 terawatt hours of low-carbon electricity a year, Laszlo Varro, the head of the IEA's gas, coal and power markets division, said in a telephone briefing.

Germany can mostly solve this problem by importing power from its neighbors, such as France and the Czech Republic, he said. However, Germany is subject to European CO2 emissions caps so this increase will need to be offset elsewhere, he said.

In 2010, 454 million tons of German carbon-dioxide emissions were subject to the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme, so an extra 25 million tons represents a significant increase.

"Somebody has to reduce CO2 emissions by 25 million tons," he said. This could occur in any part of Europe, because emissions allowances can be traded across borders, Mr. Varro said.

The bulk of the offsetting carbon savings would have to come from substituting coal-fired electricity for power from cleaner gas-burning plants, he said.

"Gas has to replace more than 100% of the lost nuclear power...because it also has to drive out coal to satisfy the carbon constraint," Mr. Varro said. An extra 90 terawatt hours of gas-fired power would be needed, replacing 40 terawatt hours of power from coal plants to offset the entire 25 million tons of CO2, he said.

The nuclear moratorium, in response to the Fukushima disaster in Japan, will set back by a couple of years Germany's move to shift its power sector away from carbon-based fuels, Mr. Varro said.

The IEA also warned in a report published Friday that decarbonizing the world's electricity supply—in itself is an "unprecedented" challenge—would deliver a little less than half the reduction in carbon-dioxide emissions necessary by 2035 to limit the eventual increase in global temperatures to two degrees Celsuis.

Resource: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304520804576348943486991956.html

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