The uncontrolled urbanization in Kazakhstan has led to various problems, as highlighted by the recent water shortage issue in the capital city, Astana. The discussion around this water crisis has extended to address broader issues related to uncontrolled urbanization in megacities. Government officials are now considering plans to restrict migration to the capital, with potential measures such as registration limitations.

The water scarcity issue in Astana is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to infrastructure problems arising from the rapid growth of major cities. Almost a quarter of Kazakhstan's population currently resides in one of the three megacities: Astana, Almaty, and Shymkent. Over the past five years, this proportion has increased from 20.8% to 23.8%.

Each of these three cities experiences a steady annual population growth due to internal migration from other regions, though the growth rates vary. Astana has seen a more active influx of people since 2017. According to the Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the population of Astana has increased by 82.3% since 2012. The city's population, which was 742,000 ten years ago, has now reached around 1.4 million in 2023.

Almaty has a similar situation, with a population increase of over 700,000 people in the past decade, reaching nearly 2.2 million, a growth of 49.1%. Shymkent, designated as a city of republican significance six years ago, has been growing at a rate of 3%-8% annually, with the highest surge recorded in 2022.

According to demographic forecasts by specialists from the Center for Labor Resource Development, migration flows to these major cities are expected to continue until 2030. In the next seven years, the population in Astana is projected to grow by 30.5% to 1.8 million (without considering regulation measures), in Almaty by 17.5% to 2.5 million, and in Shymkent by 22.2% to 1.5 million.

The majority of migrants to these megacities come from regions close to each city. For instance, in Almaty, two-thirds of the 75,700 migrants last year were from southern regions. Shymkent mainly received migrants from the Turkestan region (72.8%), while in Astana, only 19.3% of the 76,000 internal migrants were from the Akmolinsk region, with the rest coming from various parts of the country.

It's important to note that the analysis of interregional migration structure considered only the number of incoming migrants and did not account for those leaving the megacities. Despite outbound migration, the overall migration balance in Astana, Almaty, and Shymkent remains positive.
According to demographic forecasts from the "Labor Resource Development Center" in Kazakhstan, migration flows to the country's major cities are expected to continue until 2030. In the next seven years, the population in Astana is projected to grow by 30.5% to 1.8 million (without considering regulation measures), in the Southern capital (Almaty) by 17.5% to 2.5 million, and in Shymkent by 22.2% to 1.5 million.

The majority of those moving to the megacities are residents from regions close to each city. For example, in Almaty, two-thirds of the 75,700 migrants last year were from southern regions. In Shymkent, the majority of migrants came from the Turkestan region (72.8%). In Astana, only 19.3% of the 76,000 internal migrants were residents of the Akmolinsk region, while the rest came from various parts of the country. Those conquering the capital came from the Karaganda (8%) and Turkestan (9.6%) regions, as well as from Almaty (7%).

The analysis of the structure of interregional migration used data only on the number of incoming migrants. Those who left the megacities for various reasons were not taken into account. Although there were also a considerable number of such citizens, the overall migration balance in Astana, Almaty, and Shymkent remains positive.

The water shortage due to uncontrolled growth of multi-storey residential buildings in Astana is not the capital's only problem. The "growing pains" also include a deficit in the capacity of the heating system, which operated at its limits last winter. Another complex issue is the mismatch between social infrastructure and the actual population size. There is a shortage of kindergartens and schools in the capital. The deficit of student places is 20,000, and the queue for daycare exceeds 45,000 people. Almaty faces a similar situation with challenges in placing children in kindergartens or schools. Despite being the most densely populated city with the highest development indicators, it still grapples with significant household problems. According to the city's mayor, everyone living south of Al-Farabi Avenue receives low-quality drinking water. Three out of five private communal companies supplying water use technical water, which is 3.5 times more expensive than the city average.

In Shymkent, almost half of the city's population is not connected to the municipal sewerage system. The coverage level of centralized wastewater systems was only 54% at the end of 2022 (just over 500,000 people). The city's development plan for 2021–2025 indicates that the condition of wastewater infrastructure in Shymkent is very low, with 73% of existing networks being worn out. There are insufficient existing treatment facilities. In the past year, the city constructed two sewerage collectors and one sewerage pumping station, connecting 65,000 people to the system. However, half a million people (residents of private houses) still have to independently address wastewater issues, such as building septic tanks or outdoor toilets.

Common issues for all megacities include transportation congestion and high levels of atmospheric pollution. Both capitals have been topping the "Kazhydromet" environmental pollution anti-rating for several years. Shymkent, while relatively cleaner, still has an elevated pollution level. Comparing data from the three cities on various quality of life indicators, it can be noted that only Astana and Almaty have higher well-being indicators for workers than the national average. Shymkent falls short of the republican level in many parameters, with significantly lower wages and regional gross domestic product, directly affecting the city's economy.

Despite the inconveniences and hardships faced by residents of large cities, such as long waits in traffic, queues, and polluted air, for many migrants, the opportunities provided by megacities outweigh the drawbacks. Many quality of life indicators confirm that residents of such major cities have a smaller share of expenses on food, easier job finding, better conditions for sports, and a significantly higher number of cultural institutions, hospitals, universities, etc.

However, buying an apartment in megacities is more challenging than in regional centers. According to research conducted by the Eurasian National University named after L.N. Gumilyov, Shymkent and Almaty rank last in the housing affordability index. In Shymkent, it takes 12 years to save up for an apartment in a house built under the state program, while in Almaty, it's 10.7 years. Astana has a slightly lower indicator at 8.7 years. In contrast, in Aktobe, for example, one can accumulate funds for their own housing in 5.6 years, and in Uralsk — in 6.2 years.

The capital city of Kazakhstan, Astana, faces numerous challenges due to uncontrolled urbanization. Issues include water shortages, strained heating systems, and a lack of social infrastructure like schools and kindergartens. Similar problems are observed in Almaty and Shymkent. The most densely populated areas often grapple with household problems, such as poor-quality drinking water. In Shymkent, almost half the population lacks connection to the sewerage system. Additionally, all major cities struggle with transportation congestion and high air pollution levels. While these cities offer opportunities, buying property is challenging. Despite inconveniences, migrants are drawn by the prospects of better job opportunities, cultural amenities, and overall improved quality of life.