WHY NIGERIA MUST STAY BELOW THE 1.5C LIMIT.

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WHY NIGERIA MUST STAY BELOW THE 1.5C LIMIT.
by Caleb Adebayo \| 24-05-2017 01:21 0
It is undisputed that Nigeria is the largest economy in Sub-Saharan Africa. Regarded for its oil producing clout, the country is blessed with human, capital as well as natural resources. However, Nigeria, like most emerging economies, has suffered the deleterious effect of Climate change. The need for Nigeria to keep to its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions and attain the almost idyll temperature levels of 1.5C cannot be overemphasized. At the start of the climate Negotiations in Bonn in November 2015, countries most vulnerable to climate impacts (developing countries) took the political initiative by challenging USA, China and Europe to raise their ambitions and set a long-term temperature goal of 1.5 degrees instead of 2 degrees. This evinces without a doubt that developing countries need the compliance with the commitments of 1.5C more than any other nations, and how better can any government do that, than ensure its own emissions do not exceed the 1.5C limit. In fact, Thoriq Ibrahim, Environment and Energy Minister of the Maldives realizing the urgency of the situation (even as at 2015) enthused "A long-term temperature goal of well below 1.5C must be reflected in the Paris agreement, along with an indicative pathway for achieving it, including urgent peaking and deep mid-century emissions reductions" The Paris agreement is indeed daunting, yet realistic. While it maintains a legally binding obligation for state parties to reduce their emissions to below 2C, it then places an altruistic burden on states to further pursue the 1.5C obligation. Nigeria, a party to the Paris agreement, and one of the countries championing climate action in Africa, in its INDC of 11^th November, 2015 pledged to reduce emissions by 20% unconditionally and 45% conditionally, compared to business-as-usual levels, by 2030. This is the first reason why the country must keep its 1.5C commitments- the rule of 'pacta sunt servanda' (contained in Article 26 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties). It enjoins state parties to any treaty or agreement to keep them in good faith. Apart from this, other reasons include the need to preserve the little that is left of our biodiversity, the environmental consequences, the economic effects and of course the alarming rate of health hazards that especially take their toll on low income communities, women and children. Permit me to be audacious and say that Nigeria's economic and agricultural future is linked largely with its ability to keep temperature within its sphere below 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. So beyond good faith and all I have highlighted above, I will speak further on agriculture and economy. Agriculture is one of the most important sectors of Nigeria's life, and it is one of the most critical ones affected by the impacts of climate change as it is largely dependent on sunlight, rainfall, temperature and humidity. There can be no successful food production if these factors are not available both in quantity and quality. Invariably their availability it affects the quantity, quality and type of food production as well as production-related income. Thus food availability, accessibility, utilization and systems stability are equally affected because of the dynamic interaction between bio-geophysical and human environments. Also, farming seasons, storage and production are affected due to uncertainty in weather conditions. Notable is the fact that the sector remains the main source of livelihood for most rural communities in Nigeria, thus a failure of the sector is disastrous as it could lead to grave levels of hunger and poverty. It is also a major industry for the production of raw materials for the textile and manufacturing industry as well as a source of foreign exchange. A recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change showed that climate change threatens to undermine the progress that has been achieved to date, especially in the agricultural sector. There is also the effect of global warming on health of livestock, milk production and spread of diseases. For instance, the availability and price of feed grain and pasture and forage crop yields is affected. Research has also shown that certain crops in Enugu State in Nigeria may become extinct with the continued rise in global temperature (Enete IC, 2014). Drought, flooding, erosion and washing away of soil, destruction of food storage infrastructure are also ripple effects of climate change. In fact, in 2013, a major flooding that took place in Nigeria destroyed thousands of crops and farmlands. Speaking for the economy, according to a 2009 DFID study if no action is taken, between 2-11% of Nigeria?s GDP could be lost by 2020. This, to me serves enough motivation for the country to keep to its 1.5C commitment. As a fallout of my last point, the part of foreign exchange recouped from Agriculture is ailing and is just one sector of the economy crumbling under the tough hands of global warming. Out of curiousity, I went on a voyage of discovery to find if indeed achieving the 1.5C commitment is possible, empirically. I found that indeed limiting temperature rise by 2100 to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius is feasible, at least from a purely technological standpoint, according to the study published in the journal Nature Climate Change by researchers at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), and others. The 1.5C limit is not a towering Nirvana, impossible to reach. It is reality, and in fact, within reach. More particularly, IIASA researcher Joeri Rogelj, one of the lead authors of the study quipped "Actions for returning global warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100 are in many ways similar to those limiting warming to below 2 degrees Celsius." What he says afterwards is a recommendation I hope will watermark on the minds of all Nigerians "The more ambitious 1.5 degrees Celsius goal leaves no space to further delay global mitigation action and emission reductions need to scale up swiftly in the next decades." Finally, if perhaps the rationale outlined above has not convinced any reader enough, here's one fine reason by Dr Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, a scientist who worked on the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change?s (IPCC) research: "The window for limiting warming to 1.5C is still open, but closing fast. And 2C is simply not safe." This is why Nigeria must work to keep to the 1.5C commitment. REFERENCES Adejuwon, S. A. (2004). Impact of Climate Variability and Climate Change on crop yield in Nigeria. Climate Change and Food Production in Nigeria: Implication for Food Security in Nigeria (PDF Download Available). Available from: <https://www.researchgate.net/publication/290929393_Climate_Change_and_Food_Production_in_Nigeria_Implication_for_Food_Security_in_Nigeria> [accessed May 23, 2017]. FAO. (2008). Expert Meeting on Global Perspectives on Fuel and Food Security. Technical Report, February 18-20, 2008, Rome. Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Production in Enugu State,Nigeria, Enete IC. Department of Geography and Meteorology, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Nigeria, available at <https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/impacts-of-climate-change-on-agricultural-production-in-enugu-state-nigeria-2157-7617.1000234.php?aid=32633 > Acessed May 21, 2017 IPCC. (2007). Climate Change , Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Nigeria's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution <http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20documents/Nigeria/1/Approved%20Nigeria%27s%20INDC_271115.pdf >Accessed May 21, 2017 O. E. Ayinde, M. Muchie, G. B. Olatunji Effect of Climate Change on Agricultural Productivity in Nigeria: A Co-integration Model Approach Available from: <https://www.researchgate.net/publication/263227672_Effect_of_Climate_Change_on_Agricultural_Productivity_in_Nigeria_A_Co-integration_Model_Approach> [accessed May 23, 2017]. PostDam Institute for Climate Impact Research: What would it take to limit climate change to 1.5C? <https://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/what-would-it-take-to-limit-climate-change-to-1-5degc > Accessed May 23, 2017 Rogelj, J., Luderer, G., Pietzcker, R.C., Kriegler, E., Schaeffer, M., Krey, V., Riahi, K. (2015): Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5C. Nature Climate Change [DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2572] Stanley Uchenna Okoro, Udo Schickhoff, Jürgen Böhner, Uwe A. Schneider, Climate impacts on palm oil yields in the Nigerian Niger Delta April 2017 The Guardian Paris Climate Talks vulnerable countries demand 1.5C limit <https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2015/nov/30/paris-climate-talks-vulnerable-countries-demand-15c-warming-limit> Accessed May 21, 2017 The Independent UK <http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/cop21-support-grows-for-limiting-warming-to-15c-amid-claims-2c-is-not-safe-a6765546.html >Accessed May 23 2017

Dormant user Caleb Adebayo