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Climate Modelling: My Studies and Analysis |
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Hello Friends, In the last article I introduced us to the field of computational climate dynamics. I hope that the field seemed interesting for some of you as the great minds we have among Tunza members can greatly contribute to such fields across environmental sciences. What I hoped to show through that was also the fact that people from all different backgrounds and interests can help in the study of climate and environment. I know that for myself this has been true. As a person interested primarily in applied mathematics and physics, I have found an area where I can settle down and conduct research for the last 2 years. So, therefore in this article I will be discussing some of the work I have been doing in this field. So, the work that I was conducted primarily with climate modelling to create a comprehensive study of the future climate conditions possibilities over the next 10,000 years. I created climate models to create the climate stimulation possibilities under varying amounts of human GHG inputs. Now what does this mean? Well, as many of us know, the Earth?s climate changes naturally without human influence hence the ice ages. However, it is hypothesized that the human impact upon the environment is not one to be ignored a hypothesis that has been hotly debated. However, given the use of climate models that we can develop, we can study the ?natural? climate change over a certain period. We can then input human impacts of varying magnitudes to project the effect of human disturbance over the same period. This creates various stimulations that indicate the effect of each human disturbance with respect to the ?natural? model. That was the basis behind the study I conducted. I was able to learn and use math, coding and software skills to firstly write a novel mathematical model, then code it and finally create a fully functional mathematical climate model on a computer interface. The model was able to process and evaluate the climate conditions caused by differing GHG emissions scenarios based on the reports published by IPCC. These emissions scenarios are based on differing socio-economic conditions. They are 100 year projections. Using this 100 years of ?human disturbance? I deviation of climate situations caused by each GHG scenario from the ?natural? scenario (where the climate change is not influenced by any human factors) over a long term period of 10,000 years. Thus, I was able to evaluate the effects of 100 years of human influence upon the long term evolution of the climate. This allows the analysis of truly how much a short term human influence and impact the long term natural evolutions of the Earth?s climate. My results have truly been eye-opening. I have found not only that GHG can cause great climate changes over the next 100 years but also cause profound and long lasting climatic effects over the next 10,000 years. I found that GHG have a destabilizing effect on the long term climate cycles. Finally, to find the accuracy of the models I developed numerous cross checks with other models and empirical data were conducted. The model showed errors of less than 5% at maximum thus showing that the data is reliable. That is my work of the last 2 years. However, I am opening it up on this platform for comments, concerns, questions, and ideas. Please feel free to ask away! Kindest Regards, Nitish Bhatt P.S. The picture below is of my presentation of this study at the Canadian National Science Fair where this study in this field led me to achieve to Bronze Medal at the National Level. So, I highly recommend this field of study for any enthusiasts. Environmental sciences are a field where everyone can engage in study. It does not matter if you get assistance in your scientific studies, it does not matter if you have resources at your hands or not. If you self teach then you will be on your path to success...something that formal teaching cannot offer you...because when you self teach you are putting 100% of your own effort and will forward. That will lead to the success! |
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10 Comments
Well reported Nitish. I agree with you that self study is the best form of research.
Posted 15-09-2014 19:21
Thanks Nitish, for your explanation. I really learned a lot with this report.
Posted 14-09-2014 13:25
Thank you friends for your insight!
@RohanKapur: Changes in our climate are definetly becoming rapid but the difference lies between climate and weather. Weather is the day to day conditions we experience. These calamities are part of that day to day cycle. For example, a storm that triggers landslides by itself is not an indicator of climate change. However, when the frequency of these calamities increase every year then we can presume climate change. That is what climate is: averaged weather conditions over a long period of time. So, predicting weather is a different task all together. We have weather models to predict storms and cyclones for the most part. Therefore people can be warned. However ultimately the intensity of the storm, weather or not it will trigger landslides remains a challenge to accurately predict. Through a systems of ground based systems we could predict these things but this tech is expensive and ultimately that becomes the bottom line for many places. So, with advances in tech it is equally importnant ot make these advances accessible to everyone.
Posted 12-09-2014 19:04
I am sure such Climate models can predict key indicators like rise in surface temperatures for next 100 years , under different scenarios. Environmental sciences , such climate models can be really very helpful in future for understanding of earth processes, evaluating alternative energy systems, pollution control and mitigation, natural resource management, and the effects of global climate change.
Hats off to your hard work during your 2 years research work. Thanks for sharing your learnings with us , Nitish.
Posted 12-09-2014 03:02
Brilliant job! its a great remarkable achievement to do something behind the studies. You've been aiming to find the climatic effects over upcoming 10,000 years which is extradionary and you did a great job, you've made the model much reliable with less than 5 % error.
Your 2 years of hard labour really seemed to be fruitful but yet there is some space in the findings which is beyond our imagination.
Posted 11-09-2014 23:37
You did a great work with it, Nitish! There are toooooooo many variables in predicting climate change. So foreseeing climate of a few next decades is really hard work and you made it! :) It's a remarkable achievement indeed.
Posted 11-09-2014 13:43
Brilliant job Nitish.Your toil has paid and with less than 5% error, you have made the model realiy reliable.
This would be really great breakthrough if more programs like you have made are invented and make their presence ubiquitous.
It would be really great if you post a graph/chart or something like that to show human influence and their impact in natural evolution in Earth's climate.
Ps "because when you self teach you are putting 100% of your own effort and will forward. That will lead to the success" that's true. If we self teach then we will cettainly lear a lot than any formal education.
Posted 10-09-2014 23:11
Brilliant, Nitish!
Posted 10-09-2014 18:24
I understood your words, "If you self teach then you will be on your path to success...something that formal teaching cannot offer you...because when you self teach you are putting 100% of your own effort and will forward. That will lead to the success', I definitely get ready to learnt about you said like how to correlate Maths and Physics with environment.
Posted 10-09-2014 16:29
Amazing! Nitish, you have presented a vivid account of your 2 years' hard work.
I'm sure you will have more resources to take it forward. As you are working on predicting climate changes in next 100 years or so on.
These days the climate changes are sudden & massive. The cyclones, floods, landslides, earthquakes all happen with so intensity that has not been seen in past 100s of years.
Srinagar in India & Pak, Nepal, Philippines, USA are recent occurring.
I have a question in this regard.
So many scientists with ultra modern technology in hand are working 24X7. Why they can not predict such calamities?
If a model can be developed that can do this, I suppose many lives can be saved.
Posted 10-09-2014 13:17