Hello Friends,

Science is a path – a path to wisdom. One can take many routes to gain wisdom in life. Science is one such route. By walking the path of science, one can gain the crucial wisdom regarding a wide number of issues which our society faces. The knowledge which science is able to yield can result in better decisions, greater insight and ultimately a collective societal wisdom of how we can solve global issues and concerns: perhaps one of the foremost being climate change. By exploring climate change under the microscope of science, we have the ability to gain insight about its mechanisms and impacts. These impacts of climate change are something which we must monitor, analyse and be aware of as a global community. As the effects of climate change start to emerge, studies upon these effects become ever important. The effects of climate change are sometimes not apparent as natural systems are extremely complex and interconnected.

This next set of article explores this phenomena. One of the most devastating impacts of climate change is the effects of climate change upon natural disasters. Natural disasters have up until now been acts of nature – triggered by natural processes. However, following the widespread interactions of humans with the environment, the human influence has started to have an impact upon the natural disasters. From more intense monsoon seasons, to more frequent flooding, to more landslides – these human influences can often have deadly connotations. Exploring these impact has been the focus of one of my recent scientific studies.

For the past 11 months, I have been studying the impacts that climate change has upon one of the most devastating forces of nature: landslides. Landslides are perhaps one of the worse natural disasters in that they can impact thousands over the course of mere days. In fact between 2004 and 2010 it is estimated that a total 2620 major landslides claimed 32,322 lives. These devastating forces of nature cause massive and devastating loss of life to destroying property and livelihoods which lie in the slide?s path, landslides are capable of destroying both lives and livelihoods.

Hence preventing these devastating impacts from causing the damages must be a priority. However, this type of study then becomes very complex. We not only study the landslide mechanics, but also how they relate to climate change and human influences. With the goal of prevention, we must first have the knowledge of when, where and how the landslide will happen. The quest for this knowledge opens up the realm of computational modelling. Computational modelling is a process of creating and implementing computer models, codes and mathematical algorithms in order to model a certain process. This type of modelling can indeed have many applications as it can help us study the specific mechanics of landslides as they relate to climate change and environmental influences.

My study over the past year focussed on developing one such model. I created a landslide model which would be based on environmental influences. Hence it would have applications for many recent and devastating landslides such as in India and most recently in Columbia – both caused by intense precipitation. But what causes this intense precipitation? This type of intense precipitation can indeed be a random act of nature. However the frequency of this intensity is something which points fingers towards human influences. Throughout Southeast Asia, the intensifying monsoon seasons brings more of these types of heavy rainfalls which can trigger landslides as a secondary, but still deadly, impact. If we study the climate patterns and projections in both past and future, respectively, it becomes clear that the hydrologic cycle is to become more supercharged. Hence, by implementing these projections into the landslide model we can pinpoint future landslide risks over future changing environmental conditions. So, using the model which I was able to create, the opportunity to study the short term landslide risk as well as the long term risks is present.

In the next article, I will be discussing a little more in depth about the study, the model and the uses of science in determine the impacts of climate change. Until then, if you have any questions, comments or concerns please feel free to ask.

Best Regards,

Nitish.                

photo credits: nrcan.gc.ca