THE MALAWI FLOODS: SHOULD CLIMATE CHANGE BE A CULPRIT TO 2015 FLOODS?

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Unusual or extreme weather and climate-related events are of great public concern and interest, yet there are often conflicting messages from scientists about whether such events can be linked to climate change. There is clear evidence that climate has changed as a result of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions, and that across the globe some aspects of extremes have changed as a result this climate change. But this does not imply that the probability of occurrence (or, given a fixed damage, risk) of a specific type of recently observed weather or climate event has changed significantly as a result of human influence or that it is likely to become more or less frequent in the future (Stott et al, 2011). The recent disasters such as floods in Mozambique and Malawi indicates that mankind is vulnerable to extreme weather events. Clearly such events have always been part of life however the likelihood of anthropogenic global climate change being a culprit of the floods cannot be easily be backed up.

Determining the underlying cause of a particular extreme event begins with a scientific understanding of how various natural and human factors influence weather and climate. Scientific observations, especially from past events with similar characteristics, are essential for advancing our understanding of extreme events. With the case of Malawi looking at natural weather events that have a trend are droughts and floods. Observing the science behind these event the conclusion can easily be drawn on what the main cause of this year?s floods is.

The good example can be looking at the trends of droughts in Malawi. Two types of drought cells affects Malawi- the first originates in Namibia and covers Botswana, Zimbabwe, Southern Zambia and extends into Southern Malawi and North-West Malawi the second drought cell has its centre in Southern Malawi and Southern Zambia and extends outwards. It is important to note that nearly all droughts in Malawi have occurred during ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) years (1983, 1993, 1998, and 2003). There are no indications that these droughts cells will cease to affect the region (RMSI, 2009). This means that southern Malawi, especially the Lower Shire Valley is vulnerable to droughts initiated by ENSO. Therefore, if any drought occurs in southern part of Malawi the first explanation can dwell on the ENSO and the trend.

The case of floods in Malawi, have also a trend that can be traced from back in the year 1991. Floods occur in the south, particularly in the Lower Shire River floodplain and the lakeshore areas of Lake Malawi, Lake Malombe and Lake Chilwa. The low-lying areas such as Lower Shire Valley and some localities in Salima and Karonga are more vulnerable to floods when compared to higher grounds. Flooding problems in the Lower Shire River and the Ruo River floodplains are generally caused by short period high flows in the Ruo River. Floods also occur in the lower reaches of the Songwe River in the northern region. The floods have occurred in Malawi in the years 1991, 1997, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2007 and 2015. It is highlighted that the magnitude of droughts and floods in terms of people affected by these disasters during the last 20 years, it is observed that out of 12 major disasters six were floods. All caused significant hardships and loss of property (RMSI, 2009). It can be observed that there is a significant increase in the frequency of drought and flood occurrences. It can also be observed that the number of floods is increasing more rapidly in size and frequency than the number of droughts.

This year?s floods where caused by tropical cyclone ?chedza? which formed in Mozambique channel which centred west of Madagascar which was battered by moderate vertical wind shear(The watchers, 2015).The Mozambique channel includes Malawi southern region. This event can best be traced with a better explanation of natural climate phenomena which typically occur every 2-5 years, influence weather patterns throughout the world and often lead to extreme events (IRN, 2010).The phenomena are called El Nino/ La Nina-southern oscillation. La Nina is usually associated with more rain in southern Africa, but it is very difficult to predict the impact as this could vary within the Africa region and one La Nina events to another. Southern Zambia, Malawi and Madagascar, central and southern Mozambique and parts of Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe and South Africa are in for more rain than usual (IRN, 2010).

It is difficult to spare climate change in the contribution of these extreme events. They have been changes in the El Nino-La Nina cycle since the 1970s in it?s a complex cycle, but the associated droughts, flooding and other manifestations have been stronger over the last 30 to 40 years, since climate change has fundamentally altered the global system, trapping more heat and about four percent more water vapour in the atmosphere (IPS, 2011). Therefore, it is reasonable to conclude that climate change has affected the NSO cycle, hence accelerating the extreme events size of impact.

But still more, the impact cannot alone be blamed on the climate change. Environmental degradation can also be plugged in as a factor of the impact accelerator.  Around the world, a growing share of the devastation triggered by ?natural? disasters stems from ecologically destructive practices and from putting ourselves in harm?s way. Many ecosystems have been frayed to the point where they are no longer able to withstand natural disturbances (UNEP, 2005). Malawi most devastating practices of charcoal burning, unplanned tree cutting and unsustainable land uses have left most flood plain areas more vulnerable to natural disasters. This can also be a very good explanation to why the magnitude of floods in this country is growing each time the country is hit by natural extreme events.

In conclusion, Malawi?s floods have a very good link to climate change as a contributor of its impact. But a cause of this event can be traced back to the natural climate phenomena of La Nino which has periodically have contributed to the floods events on southern Africa channels. But we cannot leave out environmental degradation as a magnifier of this extreme event of 2015 floods in Malawi. In short, these weather events are caused by natural causes but are been altered by climate change and accelerated by poor management of our environment.

REFERENCES

IPS, 2011. Climate change could be worsening effects of El Nino-Al Nina. IPS- inter press services. Available online: www.ispnews.net/20011/01/climate-change-could-be-worsening-effects-of-el-nino-la-nina.mic. Accessed on 06/02/2015, 03:25AM.

IRIN, 2010. South Africa: gearing for heavy rains as La Nina strengthens. Available on line: m.irinnews.org/report/90980/southern-africa-geared-for-heavy-rains-as-la-nina-strengthern#.VKnVAMxgHa8. Accessed on 06/02/2015, 3:39.

RMSI, 2009. Malawi: economic vulnerability and disaster risk assessment. The World Bank, RMSI, India. Available online: www.rmsi.com.

The watcher, 2015. Tropical cyclone ?chedza? forms in Mozambique, landfall over Madagascar today. Available online: thewatchers.adorraeli.com/2015/01/16/tropical-cyclone-chedza-forms-in-mozambique-landfall-over-madagascar-today/.

UNEP, 2005. Environmental management and disaster preparedness: building multi-stakeholder partnership. United Nations Environment Programme. Nairobi, Kenya. Also available online: www.unep.org. 

Stott P.A., Allen M, Christidis N et al, 2011. Attribution of weather and climate related extreme events. PAS &Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA 01101). The UK.