In its latest World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report, also released last week, USDA lowered projected global wheat trade by 3 million tons, estimating 1 million fewer tons of exports from Ukraine (and 1 million more tons of exports from Russia, which the United States has exempted from comprehensive sanctions). USDA’s estimates pertain to last year’s harvests, as most of Ukraine’s exports shipped prior to Russia’s invasion, and not yet to future harvests. In March, Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food announced the result of a survey of approximately 2,500 farmers nationwide, who reported significant gaps in seeds, fertilizer, pesticides, and equipment required for crop cultivation and harvest. This will impact winter crops that were planted in 2021 for harvest in summer 2022: the FAO predicts that due to the war, between 20 and 30 percent of winter crop acreage will not be harvested, and that farmers will reap lower yields from acreage they can harvest. Neither USDA nor the FAO have yet estimated the impact of the war on global export from Ukraine’s next winter crops, set to be planted in 2022 for harvest in 2023.

Food price increases due to the Russia-Ukraine war are jeopardizing food security around the world. According to the FAO, 26 countries rely on Ukraine and Russia for at least 50 percent of their wheat imports. These include countries in Africa’s Sahel region, where 6 million children are malnourished and 16 million people in urban areas are at risk of food insecurity, according to the UN World Food Program (WFP). The WFP also recently noted the vulnerability of countries in East Africa, which also rely on imports from Ukraine and Russia, and are experiencing the effects of conflict and severe drought. UNICEF emphasizes the vulnerability of children in the Middle East and North Africa, where countries import more than 90 percent of food they consume, and the majority of children do not have access to adequate nutrition.

Today’s food price increases are also affecting politics around the world. In Pakistan, food prices had been rising for months prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and even higher food prices were among popular grievances that led to Prime Minister Imran Khan’s ousting this week. In Peru, President Pedro Castillo is struggling to quell unrest in response to record-high food and fuel prices; several died in protests last week. Egypt, the world’s largest importer of wheat, procures over 80 percent of its wheat from Ukraine and Russia, and as its own supplies dwindle, its government is seeking other sources for its supplies. The price of unsubsidized bread jumped 25 percent in some bakeries just weeks into the Russia-Ukraine war. High food and fuel prices are a flashpoint in the presidential election in France; Germany, Italy, and Spain have offered energy allowances, price cuts, and tax cuts to quell the impact of high energy prices.

 Analysts are quick to note that there is enough wheat on global markets to meet global demand, and that markets will adjust to fill gaps in exports due to Russia’s war in Ukraine. Indeed, some low- and middle-income countries stand to gain from the shock, such as India, where wheat exports reached an all-time high in March as producers fetched a higher price on global markets than the Indian government offered through its agriculture-support programs.

To quell the impacts of the war-induced global agriculture and food security disruptions, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) experts recommend that countries continue to exempt food and fertilizer from sanctions, refrain from imposing export bans, avoid hoarding and panic buying, and suspend biofuel mandates in order to retain supplies on global markets and quell prices spikes. To blunt the impact of price hikes on the poor, IFPRI recommends that countries direct food subsidies to the most vulnerable and provide humanitarian assistance through the WFP. In the long term, IFPRI recommends that countries avoid imposing market-distorting subsidies, cautiously consider decisions regarding land conservation programs, and avoid the allure of calls for food self-sufficiency.

Source- The Russia-Ukraine War and Global Food Security: A Seven-Week Assessment, and the Way Forward for Policymakers | Center for Strategic and International Studies (csis.org)